|
|
 |
|
|
Friday, 07 November 2008 17:36 |
|
| | |
Straight from SpartanTailgate.com, Its SpartanRocky's MSU Football Preview :
Michigan State vs. Purdue Preview  Here we go . . . last home game of the year. This is for a New Years Day Bowl. It’s for sending the Seniors out as winners. Get pumped. Get focused. Get jacked. Get . . .a lot of beer and start tailgating now! We’re going to need the entire fanbase to be rowdy tomorrow, come rain or shine. This is the last chance to see Hoyer and Ringer in their home uniforms. Last opportunity to witness the Otis Wiley Show. Last chance to wonder how exactly Roland Martin can pull that 6’5 325 pound frame around to knock out a LB. I didn’t put all the NCAA statistics up front like I did for the Wisky game, but some are scattered throughout the preview. It’s like a really boring game of “Where’s Waldo.” Here’s the gist of both teams.
Michigan State
TEAM
|
|
|
|
Offense
|
|
|
|
TEAM
|
|
|
|
Scoring
|
|
|
|
Purdue
TEAM
|
|
|
|
Offense
|
|
|
|
TEAM
|
|
|
|
Scoring
|
|
|
|
Now, as we all know, Purdue likes to pass the ball more than ESPN likes to cover Brett Farve. For them to be averaging just 242 yards/game through the air is ridiculous. It’s Tiller’s last year and I really thought they’d be out for blood all season. Unfortunately, they’ve been put out to pasture. Though the stats look like MSU should win by quite a bit, good Ole Mother Nature will have a say in how things shake out. Here’s the forecast.
I really don’t think cold affects football games that much, especially when it’s above freezing. Rain, however, throws a whole different spin on things. Purdue’s offense thrives on completing short, easy passes that the WR can turn into 15+ yard plays. If it’s wet out, expect to see some really bush-league stuff going on, on both sides of the ball. We could very well be in for a shoot out because both sides’ defenders will struggle in the rain while the offenses can both thrive in it (short passes can be completed in just about anything and obviously the run game works great when it’s wet out). I really want to say this will be a blow-out for MSU, but it’s really weather dependent. The match-ups generally favor us, but Purdue is no patsy. You’ll see more on this in the “overall” section, but the count the entire team as being up an emotional notch because it’s the Seniors’ last game. There’s a lot of heart on this team and after the emotional letdown against Wisky, the team should come out focused and jacked up. Seniors usually play extremely well on Senior Day (Witness Kaleb Thornhill’s double digit tackles against Penn State after looking like a Cabbage Patch Doll at MLB for most of the year), so wherever you see a senior in a match-up, know that I’m banking on them playing better than they have all year.
Michigan State QB/WRs vs. Purdue DBs
Well, Hoyer’s done a lot over the past few weeks, leading the Spartans to back-to-back come-back wins over UM and Wisconsin. To think that he threw for over 250 yards despite having his top 3 receivers missing at one point in time, is impressive. I know is completion % is low, but 7.3 yards/attempt is pretty good, especially considering the drops. A team takes on the persona of its head coach and it’s QB; both are mentally tough. Hoyer’s taken more criticism than any QB I’ve watched; some warranted, some completely unnecessary. I really hope the weather holds off, because the guy deserves a game with a healthy receiving corp (aka, Dell, who really does have great hands). But those 2 things are going to factor into his performance against Purdue this week; the health of the WRs and the weather. . . .see above.
Ok, raise your hand if you thought Blair White would be MSU’s most consistent receiver this year? Alright, that was quick. With Dell hurt and Cunningham having a case of the dropsies, White and Gantt have been MSU’s best receiving weapons. With Dell, Martin and Cunningham all getting hurt in one way or another, it was a patchwork receiving corp that Hoyer had to use to engineer that final game winning drive. The coaches said that Dell was alright to go last week, but the coaches wanted him at 100% so held him out. I’ve heard no word on Martin, but he’s really become a great asset to the team. Purdue’s Secondary boasts a lot of size and on a odd note, are all juniors. Cornerbcacks David Pender (6’1 180) and Brandon King (5’11 192) are pretty decent, though King moved over from Free Safety to play Corner. Strong Safety Torri Williams is an Otis Wiley clone physically (6’2 208) and FS Dwight McLean (6’1 203) looks the part of a Big 10 Free Safety. The problem is in the numbers; Purdue ranks 49th in the NCAA in Pass efficiency Defense (giving up 57.4% against, 13 TDs, only 6 INTs), which is good news for MSU. Again, the weather could play in here, but a relatively healthy Dell joins White and Gantt to create a real good 1-3 punch. Anything Cunningham can catch would be a bonus too. If it’s dry give a big advantage to MSU, if it’s wet, expect a lot of drops . . . when the receiver is wide open. Purdue's DBs are really that bad. Advantage:MSU
Javon Ringer vs. Purdue LBs
Usually I say “MSU RBs vs. Purdue LBs”, but we all know who’s getting the rock this game. As many of you know, Ringer had the flu last week and lost 10 pounds. He’s put most of it back on (it was mostly fluids) and ran better in practice on Tuesday than he did during the Wisky game. This is his last game at Spartan stadium, so expect a lot of hard running, especially if the weather is crappy. The sure-handed Ringer is the best player to put on the Green and White since Charles Rogers and I would definitely say that he’s represented himself much better off the field than Mr. Rogers. The fact that he carried the ball 44 times againt Florida Atlantic and never fumbled in the monsoon is something to consider in a game that may be played in similar conditions. Purdue has a stud MLB in Senior Anthony Heygood (6’2 230), who is 18th in the country in total tackles with 88 (wow), 9.78/game (Greg Jones, by the way, also has 88 tackles, but has played one more game than Heygood). The Purdue LB corp looks a lot like MSU’s; small and fast. The OLBS are Freshmen Joe Holland (6’1 211) and Chris Carlino (True frosh, 6’2 215). It’s times like these that I wish we had a bruiser like Caulcrick because those OLBs are just begging to get run over. Unfortunately, the Javon Ringer Train tends to run around rather than through people. On the flip side, Purdue is 91st in the Nation in Rush defenses at 175 yards/game. It’s Ringer’s final game in Spartan Stadium. ‘Nuff Said Advantage: MSU
MSU OL vs. Purdon’t DL Well ladies and gentlemen, we’ve had our OL together pretty much the entire year, but that hasn’t exactly been a good thing. As much as I appreciate the effort Jesse Miller has given, he gets beat off the edge way too often, especially to speed rushers. The line has not done a good job at run blocking and the pass blocking has really fallen off in recent weeks. After giving up just 2 sacks in the first 4 games, MSU has given up 13 in the last 6, putting them at 38th in the country (1.5/game). Still, it’s the right side of the line’s last home game, so they’ll be ready to go. OL is as much about attitude as anything, so it should be interesting to see how they respond against a less than stellar Purdue DL. While, Purdue is not very good at Run D, they’re pretty decent at sacking the QB. Purdue is 33rd in the nation in sacks with 2.33/game. DE Ryan Kerrigan (Soph. 6’4 255) leads the Boilers with 6 sacks. The other End might a well be a tackle. Senior Alex Magee is (6’4 295). The tackles are decent; Jr. Mike Neal (6’4 293) and Ryan Baker (Sr. 6’5 280) who might as well be a Kershaw clone. This is one area of Purdue’s D that isn’t terrible. Advantage: Even
Purdue QB/WR vs. MSU DBs
Wow, has Painter fallen. He completed 62.6% of his passes for 3846 yards, 29 TD and only 11 INTs. Look at his game this year and you can see that he’s struggling. Siller looked great against UM . . . but just about everyone looks amazing against UM. He can move around a lot in the pocket, but he’s never had to play on the road. Painter is hurting and could barely practice this week. Purdue focuses on a short passing game and that means sure-handed receivers are the key to success. Their ability to turn short passes into long gains is really maddening for opposing defenses, especially if they can’t wrap up well. Meanwhile, the guys they’re throwing it to have excelled in the Purdue scheme.
The receivers are all big and experienced: Orton (Sr. 6’3 199), Tardy (Sr. 6’1 199), Smith (So. 6’2 226) and Whittington (Sr. 6’2 213). Sheets factors in well in the passing game (Sr. 6’0 206). This is the first and only receiving corp that actually has the size to match-up well with MSU. This is going to be the toughest WR match-up MSU faces all year and really puts the new and improved secondary to the test. With so many corners and safeties playing, MSU is well tested, but injured (Rucker, Weaver, Davis-clark and Wiley are all less than 100%). However, with Ware, Adams, Fortener and Hyde all playing well, we should be OK. Expect Wiley to be close to 100%. I’m not sure about Weaver or Davis-Clark. I do like how well our secondary has tackled, which is key in a potentially rain-soaked field. One slip means a TD . . . but I like our chances. Expect to give up a lot of yards, but not a lot of TDs. Then again, if the wind and rain pick up, this could be a wild game, with defenders or receivers slipping and sliding all over the place. Purdue relies on the short, timed passes like Northwestern though they try to throw down the field more. Since I really don’t know what to expect out of Purdue’s QBs, but I’m calling this even. Advantage: Even
Purdue RB (and Running QB) vs. MSU LBs
Wow, Sheets is pretty good, huh? He was kind of a change of pace guy, but has really played well this year. Siller is definitely a threat to take off with the football, but who knows if he’s playing?? No other RB really factors into the game, so the buck stops with Sheets. We’ve played several mobile QBs, but Siller is not in the class of a Terrelle Pryor, though he does have good size (6’4 220). Should be interesting if he’s playing MSU will flip to their “Spread LB” package with Jones at MLB with Gordon and Denson on the outside. The rumors are that Ryan Allison is hurt and can’t play, but if he’s ok, he’ll be in there (6’3 225). He’s had great games against IU and Northwestern, so Allison is definitely a big asset for us. Problem is MSU is almost as bad as Purdue at stopping the run (152 yards/game 75th in the Nation, right there with Virginia, Middle Tennessee State and Rutgers). I honestly think it has to do with a young LB corp (Gordon/Jones are sophomores and Decker’s in is first year starting) and a DL that is undersized for Big 10 play. Both should improve by next year, but for this year we’ll have to go on instinct and heart (which has gotten us 8 wins so far, so no complaints here). Expect at least one big run busted that will make you want to throw your beer through the TV screen. Don’t worry though; you’ll get to the bar (since your wife/girlfriend/mother threw you out of the house for breaking the TV) in time to see these guys redeem themselves with a big fumble recover/sack/tackle for loss/impromptu rendition of the electric slide. Advantage: Even
Purdue OL vs. MSU DL Purdue starts the biggest offensive lineman we have played in True Frosh OG Ken Plue (6’7 361). The rest of the line is good-sized, with only center Cory Benton (Sr. 6’3 287) is much under 300 pounds. Tackles Zach Jones (Jr. 6’5 300) and Sean Sester (Sr. 6’7 325) are both solid starters. The other guard is Junior Eric Hedstrom (6’6 292). Despite their size, Purdue has given up 1.89 sacks/game, good for 63rd in the country. They also haven’t done a great job of run blocking, though Sheets has had a good season. MSU’s DL is at its best with a healthy Brandon Long. The Senior is healthy, knows what’s at stake and should have a great game against Purdue. The same goes for Kershaw. Wilson has been fine in the middle, but hasn’t made a ton of plays. Trevor Anderson will likely be a 2nd or 3rd team Big 10 nominee, depending on how he finishes the season. I also like the play of Antonio Jeremiah and Dwayne Holmes over the past few weeks, though Jeremiah may not play much since he’s primarily used as a run-stuffer. This may be the DL’s best game; much like OL, it’s all about attitude. Advantage: MSU
Special Teams
NAME
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chris Summers
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Carson Wiggs
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wiggs is the starting kicker and Summers is the starting punter. Why they both kick field goals is beyond me. Maybe it’s because they both suck? Swenson has more points than both of them combined. Summers isn’t even a good punter, averaging only 39.32 yards/punt (68th nationally), while MSU’s Bates averages 42.31 yards/punt AND is great at dropping it down inside the 20 yardline. The main PR is Tardy I guess, but Purdue doesn’t even have someone listed in the NCAA data bases as a PR for Purdue, which means they don’t have anyone that averages 3.5 yards/punt. That’s bad; Otis Wiley is only 31st in the country and he averages 10.8 yards/return. Aaron Valentin (JUCO, JR. 6’1 205) has the best kick return average . . . on the team with 22.91 yards/return. (63rd nationally, Purdue is 56th overall). Then again, MSU doesn’t have anyone listed at the KR list either and ranks just 98th in KR returns (19.62, though Jimmerson looked good against Wisconsin). That’s 3 areas of special teams to MSU (Kicking, Punting, Punt Returns) and one to Purdue (Kick Returns) Advantage: MSU
Overall This is going to be a tough first half. With their win against Michigan, Purdue retained a glimmer of hope of getting to a bowl game. Since this is Tiller’s last season, the team really wants to send him out a winner. Though I don’t see them beating us, we are going to get their best shot. I’m very glad that this game comes on Senior day. This group deserves a lot of recognition; they were all key players that helped MSU over the past two season go from laughingstock to respectable (and maybe even beyond that. . . we’ll see). For all the griping about the “Soft” John L. Smith Players, this group of seniors is tough as nails. They’ve faced a ridiculous amount of adversity in their careers; blowouts against almost every big 10 team, a coach getting fired, a new regime coming in when it’s really too late in their careers to transfer but they still weren’t sure if they’d fit the new system, media outlets of all kinds proclaiming them the “Same Old Spartans”, a blow-out loss to Ohio State this year, heartbreakers all of last season, etc. They never broke down, never complained, just got right back up the next week and kept fighting. They learned the new schemes and now in their 2nd year are making the most of this 2nd chance at success. The Seniors of this class have formed the rather stiff spine of one of the most mentally tough teams in the country; they never back down and they never quit. Each is an example in perseverance and should be lauded for years to come as a group that really propelled MSU towards greater things. Much like last year’s class got the ball rolling with 2 gutsy wins that propelled us to the first bowl game in 4 years, this year’s class has taken the next step and has us posed to take that next step; a New Years Day Bowl. There are only 16 Seniors and not all of them are starters. Lynn Henning from the Detroit News wrote an article this week saying that this year may be the most vulnerable the Spartans will be in a while. There is a bright future ahead of this program. It would have been easy to say this year that we lost NFLers in Thomas, Davis, Baldwin, St. Dic, had to break in a new receiving corp, lost 4 OL, our top 2 pass rushers, etc and had a down year. Instead, the Seniors you’ll watch tomorrow refused to accept mediocrity and willed us to 8 wins thus far; ensuring that the program does not take a step backwards. When I started writing this section, I thought the game would be close. Since the weather’s a factor, I’ll give 2 predictions; one if it rains, one if it’s dry. In either scenario, MSU wins, because that’s what these Seniors do. Just win, baby. If its Rain MSU 28 Purdue 21 If its Shine MSU 49 Purdue 14
|
|
